Get the Edge on 2026: Lawrence Yun Shares Why Home Prices Won’t Crash
November 13, 2025
"Not in my lifetime” was the response by Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS® when asked if he expects mortgage rates would drop to 5%. (He expects rates to settle at around 6%.)
Yun was the keynote speaker at the 10th annual “Get the Edge” economic forecast event presented by the Young Professionals Network (YPN), which operates under Seattle King County REALTORS®. More than 150 REALTORS®, Affiliates, sponsors and others attended the event in Bellevue.
Among his predictions, Yun expects:
- Mortgage rates will be cut once more this year and two times in 2026.
- Mortgage rates will settle at around 6%.
- Job gains will be enough to avoid recession.
- There will be a meaningful gain in home sales next year.
- Second homes will be very common over the next 20 years.
- Real estate will continue to be a hedge against inflation.
- Home prices are not going to crash.
Yun opened his presentation with a slide showing the impact on monthly existing home sales during the government shutdown from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019. It showed a significant drop, but a solid gain once the shutdown ended.
Another chart compared monthly changes in 30-year fixed mortgage rates for the same period. It depicted a steady drop from the shutdown.
A graph of consumer price inflation showed a steady uptick in inflation from January 21 to a peak above 8% in early 2022 to a rate near 3% in January 2025 – a rate that’s still above the 2% target, Yun noted, adding “Inflation is not yet under control.”
“Real estate is still a good hedge against inflation,” Yun remarked, backing the statement with a slide of 5-year home price gains in each state since the first quarter of 2020 until the second quarter of 2025. While not in the top 10 states with growth of 60% or more, Washington experienced a gain of 53%.
A graph of Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue median existing home price illustrated the steady increase since 1990, when the price was around $100,000 through 2023 when it was around $800,000.
The keynoter commented on the capital gains tax, saying it hasn’t changed since being set in 1997. He told the audience NAR and a nonpartisan caucus are working to change it. The 28-year-old cap is keeping needed inventory off the market because “potential sellers, especially long-time homeowners, are opting to stay put rather than risk triggering taxable gains."
Other charts Yun shared compared the median net worth between owners and renters, seriously delinquent mortgages and foreclosures, and weekly mortgage applications.
Yun closed his presentation with a slide of NAR’s nationwide forecast of existing-home sales, new home sales, median home price, mortgage rate and job gains, comparing 2025 with 2026.
This year’s Get the Edge program also included a panel discussion on “The Hidden ROI of Advocacy: Why REALTORS® Have the Edge." Panelists included:
- VP of Governmental & Public Affairs Scott Dickinson
- Director of Governmental & Public Affairs Taylor Shanaman
- Housing Specialist Randy Bannecker
- Incoming YPN Director Mikaela Ji as moderator